经济理论只有三个不可或缺的基础。 其一是需求定律——需求曲线向右下倾斜。 其二是成本概念——成本是最高的代价。 其三是竞争含意——制度与合约约束竞争,减少租值消散。 无从观察因而无从验证。 个人认为,经济内容是指需求定律的含意与成本概念的变化。{张五常}
假设个人争取利益极大化是否真实无关重要,因为淘汰下来的生存适者是证实着该假设是对的。 [@Alchian1950]
Like Variational Principles of physical systems, the fundamental principle of social systems is the postulate of rational choice. But instead of a single optimality/stationarity, the dynamics of social systems are usually outcomes of multiple competing objectives, which requires game theoretic analysis.
Postulate of rational choice is stated in two parts:
Three categories of economic inference (经济学的三范畴):
Other important results:
Other results by Cheung:
Main interpretations:
物产 Property、竞争 Competition、缺乏 Scarcity 这三个字是同义的。{Alchian}
Preference is an individual's subjective ordering of one thing over another. Symbolically, an individual's preference is a binary relation $\succeq$ on subsets of the universe $U$: ignoring equivalent expressions, $\forall A, B \subseteq U$, an individual may
Goods (物品) are any physical subject an individual prefers to have than not (有胜于无): $x \succ \emptyset$.
Scarcity (缺乏) is a state of supply which an individual prefers more of, regardless of the current amount; (多胜于少). Abundance is a state of supply that is not scarce. Economic goods (经济物品) are goods scarce to an individual who would sacrifice somewhat in exchange for more of it: $A \cup x \succ A$, where $A$ denotes the individual's all personal asset. Free goods (免费物品) are any non-economic good to an individual, who does not need to sacrifice anything to obtain more of it.
Competition is a situation where more than one individual regard a subject as economic goods. Property (物产) is any competitive economic good.
Goods ⊃ Scarcity ⊃ Economic Goods ⊃ Property
Consider a population of $n$ individuals: $N = \{ 1, \dots, n \}$, and assume all goods in the world can be categorized into distinct groups indexed by $g \in G$, each homogeneous within itself. Each individual $i$ may have various ways, indexed by $m \in M_i$, to use goods in the world and find value in the outcome. Let the m-th way for individual $i$ to use goods take multiple units of $a_m = \{ m_g \mid g \in G \} \subseteq U$, and find value in the way of use: $u_{im} : a_m \mathbb{R}_{\ge 0} \to \mathbb{R}_{\ge 0}$. Function $u_{im}$ shall be non-decreasing: $\forall k > l \ge 0, u_{im}(a_m k) \ge u_{im}(a_m l)$.
Let $A_i \subseteq U$ be the asset of individual $i$, the use value of asset the individual can get (without trade), $u_i: 2^U \to \mathbb{R}_{\ge 0}$, is the maximum total value by partitioning the asset for different ways of use: $u_i(A_i) = \max_{x_m \in P_{A_i}} \sum_m u_{im}(x_m)$, where $P_{A_i} = \{ x_m \mid m \in M_i \}$ denotes a partition of asset $A_i$ so that $\forall m \in M_i, \exists k \ge 0, x_m = k a_m$, and $\cup_m x_m = A_i$. Function $u_i$ shall be non-decreasing in the lattice ordered by subset inclusion: $\forall X \subset Y \subseteq U, u_i(X) \le u_i(Y)$.
The use value of additional asset $x = \{ x_g \mid g \in G \}$ to individual $i$ is the increase in use value of asset (without trade): $\delta_x u_i(A_i) = u_i(A_i \cup x) - u_i(A_i)$. The use value of differential asset to individual $i$ is the gradient/difference in in use value of asset (without trade): $\nabla_g u_i(A_i)$, or $\text{D}_g u_i(A_i)$. If additional asset $x$ is small, we can write $\nabla_g u_i(A_i) \cdot x = \delta_x u_i(A_i)$.
For individuals $i,j$ to voluntarily trade goods $x,y$ where $x \cap y = \emptyset$ and no currency is involved, it is necessary that the trade benefits both parties: $$\begin{align} \Delta u_i(A_i) &= \nabla u_i(A_i) \cdot (-x, y) \ge 0 \\ \Delta u_j(A_j) &= \nabla u_j(A_j) \cdot (x, -y) \ge 0 \end{align}$$
The exchange value of $x$ to individual $i$ while sacrificing $y$ (without currency) is the sacrificed use value of asset: $\varepsilon_{x,y} u_i(A_i) = u_i(A_i \cup x) - u_i((A_i \setminus y) \cup x)$. The condition of trade can also be expressed as: the use value of the additional asset is no less than its exchange value. $\delta_x u_i(A_i) \ge \varepsilon_{x,y} u_i(A_i)$.
Let the monetary value of goods (single location) be $q: 2^A \to \mathbb{R}_{\ge 0}$, consumer price index (CPI) at the location is the monetary value of a basket of goods $B = \{ b_g \mid g \in G \}$: $\text{CPI} = \sum_g q(b_g)$. Inflation at the location is the increase rate of consumer price index: $\frac{\Delta \text{CPI}}{\Delta t}$.
Currency exchange value (single location) is the use value of additional asset that can be purchased by unit currency: $v = \frac{\nabla u_i(A_i) \cdot B}{\text{CPI}} = \frac{\nabla u_i(A_i) \cdot x}{q(x)}$. At economic equilibrium, the marginal use value of goods for every individual should equal the exchange value of their market price at that location: $\frac{\partial u_{im}}{\partial x_m} = v \frac{\text{d} q}{\text{d} x_m}, \forall i \in N, \forall m \in M$. This implies that: deflation causes hoarding of physical assets; market price decrease of a good causes hoarding of that good; market price increase of a good causes dumping and production of that good.
The exchange value of goods $x$ in trade (single location) is the exchange value of price, $\varepsilon_{x,q} = v q$, in case of paying money; it is the use value of sacrificed asset to the individual, $\varepsilon_{q,x;i} = | \delta_{-x} u_i(A_i) |$, in case of earning money. The use value of asset and money (single location) is the sum of use value of physical asset and the exchange value of savings: $u_i(A_i \cup Q_i) = u_i(A_i) + v Q_i$.
The use value of asset and money (inter-regional)...
The use value (用值) of some goods is the maximum value (nominal number) the holder can extract from it, or from the opposite perspective, the maximum value the individual willing to sacrifice to obtain it: $u(x) = \| \mathbf{u}(x) \|_\infty$; $u(x) \ge u(y) \iff A \setminus y \succeq A \setminus x$. The exchange value (换值) of some goods is the use value the individual sacrificed for obtaining it: $v_i(x) = \min \{ u_i(y) \mid y \subseteq A, \max_j \{ u_j(x) - u_j(y) \} \ge 0 \}$. If a market exists for the goods, exchange value equals its market price (市价);
These definitions of value are based on exchange, which is perfectly acceptable when trade is the only concern. However, common sense understanding of use value is far from close to its economic definition. Consider a situation where milk and bread are both scarce goods to you, do you consider their use values comparable? In general, goods are of different kinds, which is equivalent to say they are of different types of use value. Within each well-defined value type, goods can be totally ordered, sometimes even admitting a metric. But any goods can have multiple or infinite types of use value to an individual, which include the exchange-based use value. Use value defined in economics shall be understood as exchange value, and exchange value be understood as exchange value of the other in a transaction; the two shall be exactly the same in an ideal transaction.
From this perspective, legal tenders have emerged as the only kind of goods with pure exchange value, that is, it has no use value other than exchange value in any scenario for any individual. Since exchange is reciprocal (symmetric and transitive), exchange values are . Monetary value embodies exchange value, and has been adopted by economists as the universal measure of use values across goods and individuals.
From this broader perspective, the postulate of economics asserts that individuals' choices can be inferred as if their only objective is the exchange value of their asset.
Quantity 数量:
需求与供应不是两个量,而是同一轴线沿相反方向移动的定名;经济学许多其它概念也有类似的冗余。
需求量与供应量皆非事实, 但张五常认可必须要有这些假设,而且也是仅有的假设。
Economic equilibrium is the choices where value gets maximized under the constraints: $s^∗ = \arg\max_{s \in S} u(s)$.
Equilibrium can also be interpreted as the equality of marginal values, e.g. marginal cost equals marginal return. Marginal (边际量) is a qualifier that refers to the differential of a variable.
If an economic model properly represents the real world phenomenon, economic equilibrium should always coincide with observation. 均衡可以阐释为经济分析有足够的局限界定,因而推出可以被事实验证的假说,即有机会被事实推翻; Disequilibrium 不均衡是指局限界定不足,没有可以被事实验证的假说,即是没有理论: 不均衡所谓的剩余或短缺不会出现. 经济学的均衡和不均衡都只是概念,不存在于真实世界,无从观察, 不要跟物理学的均衡混为一谈。
The classic result of market equilibrium should be stated as: when a good reaches market equilibrium, its marginal use value to all individuals are the same, represented by its market price. Together with the conservation of quantity under trade, this condition uniquely determines the distribution of the good within the population. Market equilibrium shall never be understood as when supply equals demand, which at best restates the conservation of quantity, and at worst dismisses this practical restriction altogether for some fictional understanding of demand and supply.
Income is a series of events. [@Fisher1930] 收入是一连串的事件; 收入永远是流动的,有时间性. $\dot{C}(t) = \frac{\text{d} u(A)}{\text{d} t}$.
Return 利润是成本投资的利息回报,也即是市场给予的收入。 均衡意味着成本与收入看齐.
return = income
Profit (windfall) 盈利是意外的收入, 盈利是不能折现的收入。 事前不知道会发生,事后也不知何日君再来的盈利,是不会影响行为的。 意外所得不算资产,不可提前享用或出售。
The cost of an event is the highest-valued opportunity necessarily forsaken; 成本是无可避免的最高代价. 代价(sacrifice)是放弃选择的用值: $c = \min_s \max_{s' \in S \setminus \{s\}} u(s')$. Direct costs (prime costs) 直接成本是指那些不生产就不需要支付的费用,由市价决定。
Economic rent (租值) 是指收入变动而某角度资源使用不变的那部分的资产价值: $r = u(s^∗) - c$. 只要考虑所有的选择,租值是成本的一部分。(?) 专利所赚到的、在生产要素成本以上的钱,因为不会被竞争者消灭,称为专利租值(monopoly rent)。
Overhead 上头成本是各直接成本以上的盈余之和,要视为租值。 Historical cost(通译“历史成本”)不是成本: 历史投资不直接算入生产单位租值极大化的选择。 Social cost 社会耗费(通译“社会成本”)也不是成本。
rent = overhead = return - direct costs
Interest is not a part of income, but the whole of income. [@Fisher1930]
Interest (利息) is a value determined by impatience to spend income and opportunity to invest it. [@Fisher1930] 利息是提前享用或预先投资资产的价,由市场竞争决定。
从浅的说,利息就是物品的期值(future value)与现值(present value)之别。 利息不是收入的局部,而是收入的全部。
return = income = interest
Interest rate is the ratio of interest to the present value of a property; 利息率是利息与现值的比率。 从社会整体的角度看,市场的利率是由投资或做生意的真实回报率决定的。 现实世界利息率多得五花八门,有两个原因:其一是通货膨胀,其二是风险或说是交易费用。 通胀或通缩是指未来日子的货币贬值或升值,这是由市场的预期促成的。 风险其实是执行借贷合约的费用,或是投资的未来回报(可视为讯息费用,但难处理)。
Wealth is the net present value (NPV) of an individual's lifetime income; 财富是全部收入的净现值. 财富是所有收入减却成本,以利率折现而得的现值. 财富是现值,本身没有时间,是静止的。 Annuity (permanent income, 年金收入):财富乘以年利率。
Investment is the balancing of consumption over time; 投资是消费在时间上的权衡轻重。 放弃今天的消费来换取明天的消费. 储蓄与投资是同一回事,不管意图不意图,只是角度看法不同。 投资在边际上回报率不要低于市场的利息率。 投资与消费的社会均衡:社会通过利率的指引与市场的运作带来不同投资项目的边际回报率相等,以及不同消费者的时间边际意欲相等。
savings = investment
Capital asset (资产) 凡是可以导致收入的物产都是资产。 所有生产要素都是资产。 Capital value is the net present value (NPV) of an individual's future income; 资本是未来收入的净现值. 资本是未来收入折现后的现值,也是资产的市值; $C = u(A)$. 视现在无限短,则资本与财富相同。
unit time -> 0: capital value -> wealth
Separation Theorem 分离定律: 在有市场且交易费用够低的情况下,一个人的投资与消费可以分开来作决策。
Efficiency is a comparative concept between equilibria under different settings/mechanisms/institutions, measured in total payoff (aka social income).
劣路非稀缺,边际产量是平线; 佳路边际产量可以高于劣路,可以有租值。 不同用户的时间价值不一样,所以有些使用者会赚取归属租值(imputed rent)。
租值消散(rent dissipation)[@Gordon1954]是指资源没有私产权利的维护,竞争使用带来的成本上升局部或完全侵蚀了资源的租值.
Rent dissipation is the reduction in aggregate value under competitive equilibria,
relative to the optimal aggregate value: $\delta r = r - \sum_{i \in N} r'_i$,
where prime '
denotes equilibrium in presence of any competition.
毫无约束的竞争可以导致租值全部消散。
(没有主人的收入会在竞争下消失。)
“一般均衡”:任何经济分析,衡量所有局限,如果有应该消散但没有消散的租值(没有主人的收入)存在,该分析一定错。
(不是严谨的推理方法,但容易用,推得快)
不同竞争者的生产成本不同(比较优势, comparative advantage),
这一特殊局限保护着租值在边际之内只是局部消散,甚至可能近于私产的效果。
为了生存社会的每个成员皆有意图减低租值的消散。
如果佳路无拥挤(非稀缺),租值不会消散; 如果佳路非私产且有足够多的使用者竞争,佳路的租值会全部消散。 如果海洋渔场属私产,不管有多少家机构参与捕钓,渔场业主会约束捕钓单位的数量, 不会容许边际成本与边际渔获所值出现分离,保证业主收取的是最高的渔场租值。 如果渔场没有业主,只一家机构捕钓,捕钓单位数量同私产情形,机构收取成本(如艇租)以上全部租值; 渔场没有业主,只有一个利益团体发放渔船牌照,牌照数量限制同私产情形,公海渔场的全部租值转移到牌照总值 [利益团体收取垄断租值(牌照总值);但换个角度看,渔民完全竞争,平均收益等于平均成本。]; 渔场没有业主,两家机构捕钓,构成古诺双头竞争(duopoly),假设成本产量皆一样,总租值低于垄断租值; 公海渔场的租值全部消散需要有无限数量的机构(pe competition),每机构的投入无限小。 渔业工会约束会员人数,七十年代的会员工资高出同样劳动力的非会员工资不少。
社会成本问题(Social cost)[@Pigou1920]是指社会成本与私人成本有分离的问题, 也可从社会产值与私人产值有分离的角度看——二者相同也。 在上世纪五十年代经济发展学说兴起时,变为外部效应(external effects)的讨论,而后又衍生出外部性(externality)。 外部性是社会无所不在的现象,却不需要政府干预。 因为有众多的利益团体存在,外部性的言论可以提供借口,要求政府干预而方便了混水摸鱼的行为。 没有利益团体的左右,政府的策划一般是顺着市场的取向。 任何公司或机构的操作,没有通过市价指引的,皆可作为“政府”的活动看。
[效率(efficiency) = 总租值最大化] (Cheung's use of Pareto optimality shall be understood as Hicks optimality, which maximizes social income/surplus, sometimes even game theoretic solution concepts.) 解释行为所需要指定的局限不一定满足帕累托。 如果所有局限条件都放进分析,至善点一定得到满足;无效率或浪费的出现,是因为某些局限没有放进分析。 给定局限,租值一定会最大化(Not total rent);只是不同局限下租值有高低,相比而言即是租值消散了。
约束竞争的社会局限(constraint/rule/institution)分为四大类:一、私有产权;二、管制规例;三、论资排辈;四、风俗宗教。
竞争约束可以看为合约的安排。 制度与合约是同类的现象。
要以交易费用(transaction cost)/制度费用(institution cost)解释合约/制度的选择。 社会整体制度转变与政府政策采用远比市场中的合约选择难于解释,因为利益团体多而复杂、非常难处理。
Four aspects of property rights:
如果资产的使用权与收入权没有清楚的界定,资源的使用会导致租值消散。
产权分派的生产定理:
Private property (私产) is any property the holder has the right to transfer; 凡是人与人之间有转让权的资产。
Public and private goods:
同一共用品,享用者之间的边际用值不同。
收费要把不付费者隔离,共用品有收费的困难。 共用品收费有互相矛盾的两种看法:其一是要采用价格分歧,收到尽; 其二是边际成本是零就不应该收费。 共用品的产出及销售量出现价格分歧需要交易费用够低(due to private information)。 收费低于平均成本,私营一定亏本; 收费高于边际成本,对社会有害无益(not social optimal)。
产量上升而平均成本不断下降的行业(边际成本低于平均成本),某方面一定有共用品的性质。 严格地说,差不多所有物品都具有共用品与私用品的性质,从一个角度看是共用品,从另一个角角看是私用品, 解释行为选用哪种看法,要看是哪种行为或现象才决定。
把共用品捆绑着私用品一起销售,是隔离不付费的人不能享用的一个好方法,可以减低交易费用:共用品可以私营产出。 传统的市场需求曲线,一般是个别需求曲线向右横加,这是私用品的处理。 可不是因为共用品的性质少有,而是因为有隔离费用,市场喜欢以私用品的量作价。
Transaction cost 交易费用是市场招致的费用: 市价的采用与厘定要付出产权界定、讯息传达、量度监管、合约磋商、风俗法律等费用。 公司的有形之手或经理人的收入全部是交易费用。 量度是以数字排列次序,而量度的精确性只能从不同观察者的认同性衡量; 交易费用起码在边际上(转变量)可以量度且不需要用基数——用序数排列高低足够,只要不同的观察者会作出同样的排列。
The Law of Contractual Performance 履行定律:
Institution cost includes costs that arise as a result of any arrangement used to conduct economic activities which involve two or more individuals. [@Cheung1998] 凡是在一人世界不存在的费用,都是制度费用. 制度费用是广义的交易费用,还包含其他所有约束招致的费用: 现存制度的运作费用; 讯息费用:要知道其他制度怎样运作及效果如何的费用; 改制费用/抗拒费用:要说服或强迫那些认为改制会受到损害的人的费用,尤其是对于那些在以等级排列权利制度中的优胜者。
如果所有交易费用是零,不需要有市场,也不需要有资产的权利界定,资源的使用会达到最高的价值。 市场是制度(合约); 市价是决定竞争胜负的准则。 在多种决定经济竞争胜负的准则中,只有市价不会导致租值消散。 如果出现市场,则市场的交易费用一定低于所有非市场的制度费用; 市场的存在节省了非市场合约的制度费用导致的租值消散。 只要“假设”制度费用够低,计划经济的效率优于市场是容易推出来的。
Interpretation of economic inefficiency:
Rent dissipation = Transaction cost = Institution cost
选择定律:合约的选择愈多,制度费用就愈低。
要素所有者可以直接销售产品, 也可合作生产由经理人代为销售产品; 公司的出现源于市场(买方、卖方)不知价。 农产品一般容易知价,不仅因为买卖双方竞争者多,而家庭主妇不可能不知是什么蔬菜或其质量为何; 愈是牵涉到专业知识的零件,市场愈不知价。 若直接交易的知价费用高于多种合作合约招致的交易费用(讯息+监管), 要素所有者选择加入公司,且交易费用最低的合约形式决定产品与生产要素的定价准则。
分工合作的收入分配:
四二均衡定律(四个边际的两方均衡)——引进交易费用的市场一般均衡:
若知价的讯息费用(交易费用)高过有形之手带来的浪费,需要政府或工会的干预。
价格管制使收入的权利局部或全部从一个合约伙伴抽出,除非这抽出的收入权是分派及界定给对方或另一个人,这抽出的收入倾向于消散。
有关的参与者有意图在局限容许下减低这消散:
收入消散最终可能表现为资产使用转变导致的资产价值下降,或合约转变导致的议定与监管合约费用增加。 说价格管制会带来什么现象一般是空泛之辞,因为怎么样的行为都可能出现。 如果我们无从推断哪些替代准则会出现,或可能出现的替代准则在逻辑上不确定,则没有理论了。
At societal level, efficient use of existing resources necessitates equal marginal products of each resource across all sectors it gets used. (See conclusion of {Cheung1969 6.B})
But this is only a necessary condition for economic equilibrium and does not guarantee maximum value.
Price searching 觅价 = monopoly pricing 垄断价格 逻辑上,觅价需要出售者面对向右下倾斜的需求曲线。 讨价还价显然是觅价,购买者与出售者皆觅价,面对个别出售者的需求曲线显然是向右下倾斜的了。 可以退货拿钱,讨价还价的行为当然难以出现。
Price taking 受价{Alchian} = perfect competition; 竞争市场决定了市价,生产者就跟着市价出售自己的产出。 潜在的竞争者要算进去,而不管潜在不潜在,竞争出售的人数不需要很多。 受价需要出售者面对的需求是平线。 平均成本等于平均收入,即是总成本等于总收入,没有盈利(profit),但有利润(return)。
捆绑定律:母体、子体二物相绑,通过被绑的量可自由变动的子体物品来赚取母体的垄断租值,会赚得比单凭母体订价出售为高, 但被绑的子体物品一定要有专利或特性,否则把子体之价提升不仅竞争者会杀进,而母体的顾客不会管什么捆绑不捆绑。
价格分歧 price discrimination; 持久物品 durable goods; 讯息费用 information cost; 进入市场 market entry;
Social choice theory [@Arrow1951]
Public-choice theory [@Black1958]
从合约结构的角度看,历史有载的国家(theory of the state)需要包括三项特征:
收入分配本是由收入权界定,平常所见财富/收入分配(wealth/income redistribution)其实说的是政府主导的再分配。 市场经济有机会导致贫富分化,收入再分配因而往往需要。
市场经济出现贫富分化的四个原因:
租(rent)是非强制性地转让资产使用权,无论资产收入收取的费用; 税(tax)是强制性地,不涉及资产使用权的转让,可能基于个人收入收取的费用。
原则上,政府抽税可以跟资源租值的极大化没有冲突。 土地为国家所有,地方政府以增值税(value-added tax)放出去给使用的竞争者,是有经济效率的税务制度(中国的包产到户)。 抽所得税(income tax)不一定带来因为收入权利界定不清而出现的租值消散。 如果抽税使收入权界定不清则会消散租值:付稅方不知购买的是何物何价,抽税方也不知自己提供所值。 租值转移的本身对社会经济没有明显的害处,但你攻(工会组织)我守(机构的防守政策)的费用高,切进了租值那里去。
以抽税的方法作再分配近于一律没有可取的经济效果,而抽税的费用可以高于税收所得。
产权平等与人权平等不可能同时提高。 在某些情况下,不平等的人权界定可以减少因资产界定不够清晰而出现的租值消散。 把某些人的非市场排列的人权压下去一般对社会有害,但把某些人的非市场排列提升一般对社会有利。
政府不能用货币制度(monetary policy)榨取人民财产。